April 18, 2024 – 7:59 AM PDT
(Reuters) – Global growth will likely slow this year and major central banks across the globe have indicated interest rate cuts this year.
Following are forecasts from some major banks on economic growth, inflation, and how they expect certain asset classes to perform:
Real GDP growth forecasts for 2024
| GLOBAL | U.S. | CHINA | EURO AREA | UK | INDIA | |
| Goldman Sachs | 2.8% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 6.6% |
| Morgan Stanley | 2.8% | 1.9% | 4.2% | 0.5% | -0.1% | 6.4% |
| UBS Global Wealth Management* | 2.6% | 1.1% | 4.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 6.2% |
| Barclays | 2.6% | 1.2% | 4.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 6.2% |
| J.P.Morgan | 2.2% | 1.6% | 5.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 5.7% |
| BofA Global Research | 2.9% | 2.7% | 4.8% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 5.7% |
| Deutsche Bank | 2.4% | 0.6% | 4.7% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 6.0% |
| Citigroup | 1.9% | 1.0% | 4.6% | -0.2% | 0.1% | 6.3% |
| HSBC | 2.6% | 2.3% | 4.9% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 6.3% |
| UBS Global Research* | 3.0% | 2.2% | 4.6% | 0.6% | – | – |
U.S. INFLATION
U.S. consumer prices increased more than expected in March as Americans continued to pay more for gasoline and rental housing, leading financial markets to anticipate that the Federal Reserve would delay cutting interest rates until September.
U.S. inflation (annual Y/Y for 2024)
| Headline CPI | Core PCE | |
| Goldman Sachs | 2.50% | 2.5% |
| Morgan Stanley | 2.10% | 2.70% |
| Wells Fargo Investment Institute | 3.0% | 2.60% |
| Barclays | 2.70% | 2.4% |
| J.P.Morgan | 2.50% | 2.50% |
| BofA Global Research | 3.5% | 2.50% |
| Deutsche Bank | 2.10% | |
| Citigroup | 2.0% | 3.0% |
| HSBC | 3.4% |
Forecasts for stocks, currencies and bonds:
| S&P 500 target | US 10-year yield target | EUR/USD | USD/JPY | USD/CNY | |
| Goldman Sachs | 5,200 | 4.00% | 1.12 | 145 | 7.05 |
| Morgan Stanley | 4,500 | 1 | 140 | 7.5 | |
| UBS Global Wealth Management* | 5,000 | 3.50% | 1.12 | 140 | 7.00 |
| Wells Fargo Investment Institute | 5,100-5,300 | 4.25-4.75% | 1.06-1.10 | 156-160 | |
| Barclays | 5,300 | 4.25% | 1.09 | 145 | 7.20 |
| J.P.Morgan | 4,200 | 3.75% | 1.13 | 146 | 7.25 |
| BofA Global Research | 5,400 | 4.25% | 1.15 | 142 | 6.90 |
| Deutsche Bank | 5,100 | 4.10% | 1.10 | 135 | |
| Citigroup | 5,100 | 4.30% | 1.02 | 135 | 7.25 |
| HSBC | 5,400 | 3.00% | 1.05 | 145 | 7.10 |
| Oppenheimer | 5,500 | ||||
| UBS Global Research* | 5,400 | 3.6% | 1.12 | 140 | 7.00 |
* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group
Compiled by the Broker Research team in Bengaluru; Edited by Sriraj Kalluvila, Paul Simao, Arun Koyyur, Anil D’Silva and Shounak Dasgupta