By EDDIE PELLS
Updated 3:00 AM PST, November 5, 2025
The College Football Playoff selection committee came into its meetings armed with a dozen metrics to help it tease out the differences that will ultimately decide which teams play for a national championship.
When the first set of rankings were revealed Tuesday night, committee chairman Mack Rhoades said the members were just as apt to look at game tape alongside all the statistics.
“I think we refer to it as art and science,” said Rhoades, the athletic director at Baylor.
If you’re reading between the lines, which is all you can really do when it comes to the committee, the “eye test” — that decades-old splash of subjectiveness that the 12-team playoff was built to subvert — will play a meaningful role in setting the bracket.
What’s known after the first reveal: Defending champion Ohio State is No. 1 but is considered barely better than two other undefeated teams behind the Buckeyes, Indiana and Texas A&M.
There’s no big controversy there, though the Aggies did have an argument. Their 41-40 victory at Notre Dame early in the season might be the most impressive in the sport so far this year. They also have played a tougher schedule — one of the metrics — than either of the Big Ten teams ahead of them.
Rhoades’ answer to that: Ohio State and Indiana have been better on defense, a conclusion the committee drew from both the stats and their eyes.
“I think the art is watching the team on film and tape and how good they are, how physical they are up front, offensive line, defensive line play, how good are they up the middle, their quarterback play, their skill players,” Rhoades said. “And then certainly contemplating and looking at metrics.”
CFP vs. AP
If the playoff was held based on the initial CFP rankings, the matchups would be:
— No. 12 seed Memphis at No. 5 Georgia, winner vs. No. 4 Alabama.
— No. 11 seed Virginia at No. 6 Ole Miss, winner vs. No. 3 Texas A&M.
— No. 10 seed Notre Dame at No. 7 BYU, winner vs. No. 2 Indiana.
— No. 9 seed Oregon at No. 8 Texas Tech, winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State.
The first three teams out: Texas, Oklahoma, Utah.
If the playoff was held based on the latest AP Top 25 rankings, the matchups would be slightly different:
— No. 12 seed Memphis at No. 5 Georgia, winner vs. No. 4 Alabama.
— No. 11 seed Virginia at No. 6 Oregon, winner vs. No. 3 Texas A&M.
— No. 10 seed Notre Dame at No. 7 Mississippi, winner vs. No. 2 Indiana.
— No. 9 seed Texas Tech at No. 8 BYU, winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State.
The first three teams out: Oklahoma, Texas, Louisville.
A Memphis mystery
Memphis, which would’ve made the bracket this week, is nowhere to be found in the committee’s first top 25.
Despite that, the Tigers of the American Conference would be the 12th seed this week based on the fact that they are the fifth-best rated conference champion.
The automatic byes for conference champions have been eliminated this year, but five champions are still guaranteed spots in the tournament (No. 14 Virginia of the ACC also would displace a top-12 team).
Memphis, which is 8-1 and is ranked 22nd by the AP, vaulted into this spot with a win two weeks ago over South Florida, which has victories over Boise State and Florida and had an inside track on the Group of Five spot.
Now, it’s up for grabs. There is no 2024 Boise State out there and the fifth conference champion figures to jump ahead of about 15 teams to make the bracket, which will undoubtedly have some impact on how the SEC and Big Ten view automatic bids in discussions on playoff expansion.
The surprising and unexpected
Coming off a 45-14 thumping of Cincinnati, Utah ended up 13th in the CFP rankings. The Utes are tied for fourth in the Big 12 — not ideal — but their schedule isn’t so tough.
Oregon is ranked sixth in the AP poll, but the committee didn’t see it that way, dropping the Ducks to ninth. They play three ranked teams down the stretch, which could cut both ways. Wins over all would make Oregon a cinch for at least an at-large bid. But Iowa, Washington and USC will all be looking at a win over Oregon as their chance to get in the playoff conversation.
Games to watch for the next CFP rankings
— No. 7 BYU at No. 8 Texas Tech: Winner in the driver’s seat for an at-large bid if the Big 12 Conference title doesn’t work out.
— No. 3 Texas A&M at No. 22 Missouri: What does strength of schedule mean? We’ll find out if the Aggies win and Ohio State (minus 29 1/2) handles Purdue and Indiana (minus 15 1/2) beats Penn State.
— Auburn at No. 16 Vanderbilt: Everyone loves that Vanderbilt story. A win over a struggling team that just fired its coach is a must to keep the dream alive.
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