U.S. dollar softness to continue; Euro, yen best placed: PIMCO

FILE PHOTO: Euro, Hong Kong dollar, U.S. dollar, Japanese yen, pound and Chinese 100 yuan banknotes are seen in this picture illustration
FILE PHOTO: Euro, Hong Kong dollar, U.S. dollar, Japanese yen, pound and Chinese 100 yuan banknotes are seen in this picture illustration, January 21, 2016. REUTERS/Jason Lee/Illustration

September 15, 2020

By Aaron Saldanha and Lisa Pauline Mattackal

(Reuters) – The U.S. dollar is likely to continue weakening against developed market currencies after the U.S. Federal Reserve’s shift to a new monetary policy strategy, a portfolio manager at bond giant PIMCO said on Tuesday. Erin Browne, managing director and portfolio manager at PIMCO, told the Reuters Global Markets Forum she had become more bearish on the U.S. dollar <.DXY> over the last three months.

Within developed markets, the euro <EUR=> and Japanese yen <JPY=> were the “best structural longs,” said Browne, who co-manages the PIMCO Dynamic Multi-Asset Fund.

For a graphic on Spain and Italy yield spread over Germany:

https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/rlgvdjmrevo/Spain%20and%20Italy%20yield%20spread%20over%20Germany.png

“Tactically, I also think Norway’s krone <NOK=>, sterling <GBP=> and Australian dollar <AUD=> offer value,” Browne said.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday could signal a switch in the Fed’s Treasury purchases toward longer-dated debt to keep long-term yields low, some strategists anticipate. [.N]

Browne said she did not expect the Fed to begin a yield curve control program at this time, nor another edition of “Operation Twist,” referring to the 1960s U.S. monetary policy aimed at influencing the yield curve <0#USBMK=>.

The Fed recently rolled out a sweeping rewrite of its approach to its dual role of achieving maximum employment and stable prices, putting less weight on worries about too-high inflation.

On equities, Browne said U.S., European and select emerging market stocks are more attractive than their Japanese peers.

However, with global growth expected to rebound, Japan is set to benefit given its sensitivity to export growth, the co-manager of the PIMCO Global Core Asset Allocation Fund added.

“The policies of (Yoshihide) Suga will be very much in line with a continuation of Abenomics. This (leadership transition) should not be seen as a move away from the policy directives over the past decade.”

Suga is on track to become Japan’s new prime minister, succeeding Shinzo Abe, who resigned due to ill health.

(This interview was conducted in the Reuters Global Markets Forum, a chat room hosted on the Refinitiv Messenger platform. Sign up here to join GMF: https://refini.tv/33uoFoQ )

(Reporting by Aaron Saldanha in Gurugram, Lisa Mattackal in Bengaluru; Editing by Divya Chowdhury and Steve Orlofsky)